Shoutout to Jomboy's Baseball Breakdowns

With all the talk about baseball needing a significant makeover considering that strikeouts and game lengths are up and batting averages, doubles, triples, stolen bases and excitement are down, it’s nice to see that the game can still be made interesting by sheer personality and incredible lip-reading.  Enter Jomboy Media.  Now, I’m not much of a YouTube guy because I like to waste my time in other meaningless ways, but I do have a 19 year-old son who will on occasion lead me to a channel that offers big entertainment value, a phrase not typically associated with Major League Baseball these days.

Jomboy Media has a history, multiple channels, podcasts and a slew of related entities that I don’t understand, and I encourage you to investigate all of them and then tell me in 30 seconds what I should pay attention to, but what I’d like to share with you today are its Baseball Breakdowns hosted by Jimmy O’Brien.  The breakdowns are an inside look of baseball’s intricacies, extraordinary plays, heated arguments between players, managers and umpires, and the best (and worst) of baseball fandom, all done with wit and a genuine appreciation for the game.  And did I mention the lip-reading?  Wow! This guy can tell you exactly what managers Craig Counsell and Tony La Russa are uttering in this incredibly interesting and entertaining breakdown of a challenge that may or may not have taken advantage of a significant loophole in the rulebook. 

For another taste of what O’Brien does best, check out this recent look at a Mariner comeback against the Astros:

Great stuff!  I’m a fan.  I might be as big a fan of Jomboy as I am of baseball itself.  You can also watch the videos and have better search functionality at Jomboy’s website.

Now excuse me while I piss away some more time on YouTube.

A Devil's Baseball Bargain

I’ve proposed the following scenario to a few Milwaukee Brewers fans, but you could just as easily apply it to fans of the Seattle Mariners or Texas Rangers, the Jacksonville Jaguars, Denver Nuggets or Buffalo Sabres, or any other sports team without a championship. 

A person or entity of some kind approaches you, and – knowing your lifetime loyalty to the Milwaukee Brewers (or some other ill-fated sports team) – says, “I can guarantee that the Brewers will win a World Series sometime in the next five years, but here’s the deal: your team will spend the subsequent twenty years in last place.”

You don’t know how or why, but you know this person is telling the truth.  Do you take the bargain?

I’ve offered this question to a couple of friends of mine and have been dumbfounded that each of them quickly and unequivocally said no; they’d rather have a fun, competitive team for many years than to hit the pinnacle for one year and spend two decades in the cellar.

Me?  I would take the deal in a heartbeat.

I wouldn’t have when I was fourteen years-old and the Brewers had just lost the World Series in seven games to the St. Louis Cardinals.  After all, they’d surely be back a year later to avenge their disappointing loss, right?  Right???

Nearly forty years later, I realize just how fleeting successes are, and how you can root for a team – even good teams – and never make it to the finish line.  Think the Utah Jazz, the Tampa Rays or the Buffalo Bills.  Or how about the Atlanta Falcons, who let the Super Bowl slip away when it was in the bag?  Brutal stuff.  Tell me a Falcon fan wouldn’t change the outcome of that game for twenty years in the doldrums.

The Packers have won two more Super Bowls than I ever expected them to win when I was following them through the awful 70s and 80s.  But now?  It’s all icing, baby.  They’ve done it.  Twice in my lifetime!  If they spend the next decade in last place, hey, that’s okay.

The Milwaukee Bucks just won their first championship since I was three years old.  I was thrilled.  I traveled up to Milwaukee and hung out with my sister and brother-in-law, walked amongst Bucks fans of all genders, races and sizes, and I loved it.  But I couldn’t express unadulterated jubilation, because I didn’t earn it.  I don’t think much of pro basketball as a sport, and while I was very happy for the city of Milwaukee, the fans who’ve slogged through season after hapless season and the players who seem genuinely grateful for having won a championship in a small-market city, I couldn’t revel in the victory as much as the next guy.  After all, the Bucks game I attended earlier this year was my first NBA game in twenty years.

But I’ve earned my heartache with the Milwaukee Brewers, and I will have earned the euphoria should they ever manage to win a World Series.  They’ve come close to getting there – in 2011 and 2018 – and those were fun rides to be sure, but they were not the finish line.  I want what true Bucks fans got last week.  I want it all.  I want to be in the stands when the Brewers complete a World Series victory.

I’d be willing to spend a lot of awful seasons for that Golden Moment.  Hell, I’ve lived through enough awful seasons without that golden moment.  What’s a few more?

The 2021 Brewers

It’s that time of the year again!  Opening day of Major League Baseball is upon us.  I couldn’t be happier that a full season is – if not guaranteed – at least a possibility.  Rewind a year ago and things were looking mighty bleak.  This year, I fully expect to attend a few games up in Milwaukee once I receive my second vaccination and give it a few weeks to do its magic.  Can’t wait.

A week or two before the 2020 baseball season was called, I predicted 74 wins for the Milwaukee Brewers, good enough for fourth place in the NL Central.  They ended the abridged season at 29-31, the equivalent of a 78-win season, and they did indeed finish in fourth place, earning a playoff spot due to the expanded format and losing to the Dodgers in the first round.  Making the playoffs – even with a sub .500 record – was a minor miracle given the dreadful team batting average of .223.  Even Christian Yelich couldn’t put wood on the ball, batting .205.  I gotta believe that this year’s team, while not expected to be an offensive juggernaut, will perform better this season.  If they can, the Brewers have a chance to contend for the NL Central division title.

General manager David Stearns only made a few moves this off-season, most notably the signing of second-baseman Kolten Wong, which moves the poor-fielding Keston Hiura to first base.  This is a huge step up for the Crew, both offensively and defensively, though Brewers fans will likely cringe each time a potential double-play ground ball is hit toward Keston.  Brace yourselves for a few errant throws into the outfield.

The other pickup is outfielder Jackie Bradley, a signing that was likely influenced by the question mark surrounding Lorenzo Cain’s return to center field after a year off.  Bradley is a career .239 hitter, so I wasn’t exactly wowed by the signing, but the former Red Sox player is terrific defensively and helps provide insurance and flexibility.  He also bats lefty (as does Kolten Wong), allowing manager Craig Counsell some latitude with late-inning matchups. 

Stearns tried to sign Justin Turner at the hot corner, and this would have been quite a thrill, but for now Travis Shaw returns after a year in Toronto.  His batting average went up a bit last year, so perhaps he’ll return to 2017-2018 form, when he provided significant pop from the left side before struggling mightily in 2019, when his average plummeted to .157 over 230 at-bats.  Overall, this looks to be the weakest position in the Brewer lineup.

Otherwise, Milwaukee’s lineup is adequate. Orlando Arcia and Luis Urias will likely share shortstop duties, Manny Pina and Omar Narvaez will man behind the plate, and Yelich, Cain and Avisail Garcia will join Bradley in the outfield.  If a few Brewers manage to have career seasons, it could be a decent lineup, but outside of Yelich, it’s certainly not an intimidating offense.

The pitching also has some concerns, but again, if a few of the starters can have career years and if the staff can stay healthy, they could be effective, if not dominate.  Last year the team ERA stood at 4.16, good for sixth in the national league (but a full run behind the Dodgers).  Incidentally, the seven best NL ERAs all made the playoffs, while five of the six worst run-producing teams made the playoffs.  Pitching matters!  Luckily for the Crew, all of last year’s starters – led by Brandon Woodruff and Corbin Burnes – are returning, though for now Freddy Peralta and Josh Lindblom have swapped starter/reliever roles, and last year’s core of effective relievers return as well. 

One pitching question mark is last year’s NL rookie-of-the-year, reliever Devin Williams, who posted a phenomenal 0.33 ERA as a setup up man for closer Josh Hader, and who’s returning after sitting out the playoffs last October due to a shoulder injury.  We shall see if he can stay healthy for a full season and achieve some degree of success.  Hader’s dominance of 2017-2018 has taken a few modest hits, but he’s still a hell of a good closer, and if he manages to make his changeup a more significant part of his repertoire – as he claims he will – watch out.

All in all, this should be a Brewers team that’s entertaining and competitive, though not awe-inspiring, and with Craig Counsell at the helm and a lot of match-up opportunities, I think it’ll be an exciting season that ends with the Brewers in the hunt for a playoff spot.  Give them 84 wins, perhaps enough for a wild card.

One final note: 2021 will be the first Brewers season without Ryan Braun in the lineup since 2006.  I could not be happier about his absence.

Baseball Begins

Just prior to the beginning of the pandemic-shortened MLB season, I happened to start watching the baseball-themed comedy series Brockmire, and was taken with this quote from the third episode:

“So let’s not make baseball out to be any more important than it really is.  It’s just a diversion that keeps us from pondering our own personal hells.”

I love this, and while I’d never admit that I when I watch a ballgame I’m avoiding my own personal demons, I must confess that I’ve missed the diversion of baseball.  I’ve missed having that little no-think something to look forward to at the end of the day, or – lately - in the middle of a frightfully unscheduled weekend.  A little light that says, “Hey, even if you’ve got nothing else going on, baseball starts at 1:20,” as it did yesterday. 

I grabbed a Pabst from the refrigerator (because it’s $7.99 for a 12-pack and it’s good on a hot summer’s day, that’s why), lay down on the couch, petted my pooch, and listened to Bob Uecker call the game for his fiftieth-straight season.  Perfect. The diversion and it’s accompanying mid-day nap were lovely pastimes indeed right until Peralta gave up four runs in fourth and basically ensured that the Cubs would take two of three from the Brewers to start the season.  At that moment it was baseball frustration as usual.  I turned the TV off and went back to work.

Ah, but there’s another game tonight, another diversion, another glimmer of hope.  And that’s one of the beauties of baseball.

And while I don’t exactly hold out a lot of hope for the Brewers during this season like no other, or for the baseball season in general in light of the horrific number of COVID-19 cases reported each day, I can imagine the following scenario:  after a lifetime of making a silent prayer (okay, sometimes not so silent) to let my Brewers win a World Series title (just one – I’m not being greedy), I can imagine the All-Powerful Creator up in the sky saying, “You want a World Series Title; I’ll give you one,” and THIS will be the year I’m granted my request.  This asterisk-marred joke of a season.  THIS will be the year the Milwaukee Brewers win a championship.  Craig Counsell and his crew will come home to Milwaukee for a parade down Wisconsin Avenue on a chilly November afternoon, and fans will come out in droves to celebrate the stunning achievement of the city’s first title since the erstwhile Braves in 1957, and I will be one of those delusional fans. But I and all of my cheesehead brethren will know…we’ll know that none of it counts.  Nothing counts in what is basically a 60-game exhibition.  And God will say, “Hey, what do you want?  I gave you a World Series.”

Because never once in all my years of praying did I specify, “Please God, let the Brewers win a World Series in my lifetime, but only if it’s a legitimate 162-game regular season.”

Dummy me: I forgot to include the proviso.

The 2020 Brewers

It’s hard for Brewers fans not to be a wee bit excited for baseball this year beyond the usual reasons (springtime, listening to Bob Uecker, watching a boatload of TV), not necessarily because the Crew is expected to win the NL Central this year – or even compete for it – but because there are so many new faces and moving parts, not to mention that we just learned about all-star Christian Yelich’s extension.  I look forward to learning more about the latest Brewers, but I must admit that I’m having trouble keeping track of all the new guys.  You’ve got Josh Lindblom, Logan Morrison, Eric Lauer, Luis Urias, Justin Smoak, Mark Mathias, Brett Anderson, Avisail Garcia, Omar Narvaez, and don’t even get me started on the new relievers.  It’s all a bit overwhelming, but it’s also exciting to imagine how it’s all going to play out.

Less exciting is to think realistically about how the Crew is going to perform this year, not only because of the talent on the field, but because of a new rule change that eliminates a late-season strategy the benefited them in a huge way over the past two seasons.  The Brewers are coming off two playoff appearances in a row for the first time in franchise history (unless you count 1981’s strike-shortened first round playoff, which I don’t), but look behind the numbers and the off-season pickups – particularly in the pitching department – and there’s cause for concern going into the 2020 season.

To put it bluntly, September call-ups saved the Brewers during the last two years, as beleaguered pens were allowed to take a breather during the home stretch.  On August 27 two years ago the Crew found themselves 13 games over .500 but 6 games back in the NL Central and clinging onto the second wild card spot.  They then went 23-7 the rest of the way, with a 20-7 September (including one game in October), winning the division in a one-game playoff with the Cubs.  Pretty remarkable, but then they did it again in 2019!  Another 20-7 September!  At the end of August last year the Brewers were in third place, only three games above .500 and 6.5 games back and 4 games behind the second wild card.  Twenty-seven games later they made the playoffs, losing to the eventual World Series champions.

These were very exciting finishes for Brewer fans, and Craig Counsell’s skill at maneuvering personnel in these successive Septembers probably should have won him at least one NL Manager of the Year, but 2020 will allow no such opportunity.  Major League Baseball has initiated a new rule that limits the active roster to 28 during September and 26 during the rest of the season, up from 25.  This rule change could be huge for a team like the Brewers who doesn’t have a pitching ace and who has to rely on short stints of 4-6 innings throughout the season, taxing the bullpen.  There will be little relief in sight when only two additional pitchers can be added come September.

For the record, I agree with the rule change; it makes no sense for teams to field a very different pitching staff in September than the team that got them through the first five months of the season.  But the new rule is going to affect the Brewers in a big way, akin to how the NFL’s kickoff rule change in 2011 effectively penalized the Bears the most since they had the most talented kick returner in Devin Hester.

So what does this mean?  To me, it means that the Brewers are going to have to have a more consistent pitching staff, better able to manage a 162 game season without the cavalry coming in and saving the day.  But in a flurry of off-season activity largely aimed at plugging in the holes at third, first and catcher created by outgoing Mike Moustakas, Eric Thames and Yasmani Grandal, respectively, the Crew didn’t make the big splash expected in starting pitching.  They instead dealt around the margins, attempting to find value in arms that won’t break the bank and that won’t demand a long-term contract.  This has worked successfully for General Manager David Stearns at times with pickups such as Jhoulys Chacin, Wade Miley, Drew Pomeranz and Gio Gonzalez.  But the Crew’s pitching strategy has also backfired at times, such as last year when the Willy Peralta and Corbin Burnes experiment didn’t go according to plan.  You can’t win them all. 

So, will this year’s experiment work?  Will newcomers Lindblum, Anderson and Lauer joining an effective but still fairly inexperience duo of Brandon Woodruff and Adrian Houser be enough?  And will they be able to eat as many innings as Zach Davies and Chase Anderson, who ranked first and second in innings pitched for the Brewers in 2019?  Will Corey Knebel be effective when he returns from last season’s surgery?  And will Josh Hader and Corbin Burnes be able to limit the number of home runs this season (granted, this was a problem throughout Major League Baseball last year)?

I asked similar pitching questions a year ago, and the feeling going into 2020 feels very much like the feeling going into 2019, except that this year we don’t have the nearly-guaranteed offensive production of Moustakas and Grandal.  Instead, we’re praying that Urias, Navarez, Garcia, Smoak and Eric Sogard take up the slack. And them of course we have the September rule change.

A year ago I predicted 88 wins compared to their eventual 89 wins.  I’m excited for this season – I truly am – but I’m not optimistic.  I think the pitching is finally going to get the better of the Brewers with no September call-ups to save the day.

75 wins.  Fourth place.