The 2021 Brewers
It’s that time of the year again! Opening day of Major League Baseball is upon us. I couldn’t be happier that a full season is – if not guaranteed – at least a possibility. Rewind a year ago and things were looking mighty bleak. This year, I fully expect to attend a few games up in Milwaukee once I receive my second vaccination and give it a few weeks to do its magic. Can’t wait.
A week or two before the 2020 baseball season was called, I predicted 74 wins for the Milwaukee Brewers, good enough for fourth place in the NL Central. They ended the abridged season at 29-31, the equivalent of a 78-win season, and they did indeed finish in fourth place, earning a playoff spot due to the expanded format and losing to the Dodgers in the first round. Making the playoffs – even with a sub .500 record – was a minor miracle given the dreadful team batting average of .223. Even Christian Yelich couldn’t put wood on the ball, batting .205. I gotta believe that this year’s team, while not expected to be an offensive juggernaut, will perform better this season. If they can, the Brewers have a chance to contend for the NL Central division title.
General manager David Stearns only made a few moves this off-season, most notably the signing of second-baseman Kolten Wong, which moves the poor-fielding Keston Hiura to first base. This is a huge step up for the Crew, both offensively and defensively, though Brewers fans will likely cringe each time a potential double-play ground ball is hit toward Keston. Brace yourselves for a few errant throws into the outfield.
The other pickup is outfielder Jackie Bradley, a signing that was likely influenced by the question mark surrounding Lorenzo Cain’s return to center field after a year off. Bradley is a career .239 hitter, so I wasn’t exactly wowed by the signing, but the former Red Sox player is terrific defensively and helps provide insurance and flexibility. He also bats lefty (as does Kolten Wong), allowing manager Craig Counsell some latitude with late-inning matchups.
Stearns tried to sign Justin Turner at the hot corner, and this would have been quite a thrill, but for now Travis Shaw returns after a year in Toronto. His batting average went up a bit last year, so perhaps he’ll return to 2017-2018 form, when he provided significant pop from the left side before struggling mightily in 2019, when his average plummeted to .157 over 230 at-bats. Overall, this looks to be the weakest position in the Brewer lineup.
Otherwise, Milwaukee’s lineup is adequate. Orlando Arcia and Luis Urias will likely share shortstop duties, Manny Pina and Omar Narvaez will man behind the plate, and Yelich, Cain and Avisail Garcia will join Bradley in the outfield. If a few Brewers manage to have career seasons, it could be a decent lineup, but outside of Yelich, it’s certainly not an intimidating offense.
The pitching also has some concerns, but again, if a few of the starters can have career years and if the staff can stay healthy, they could be effective, if not dominate. Last year the team ERA stood at 4.16, good for sixth in the national league (but a full run behind the Dodgers). Incidentally, the seven best NL ERAs all made the playoffs, while five of the six worst run-producing teams made the playoffs. Pitching matters! Luckily for the Crew, all of last year’s starters – led by Brandon Woodruff and Corbin Burnes – are returning, though for now Freddy Peralta and Josh Lindblom have swapped starter/reliever roles, and last year’s core of effective relievers return as well.
One pitching question mark is last year’s NL rookie-of-the-year, reliever Devin Williams, who posted a phenomenal 0.33 ERA as a setup up man for closer Josh Hader, and who’s returning after sitting out the playoffs last October due to a shoulder injury. We shall see if he can stay healthy for a full season and achieve some degree of success. Hader’s dominance of 2017-2018 has taken a few modest hits, but he’s still a hell of a good closer, and if he manages to make his changeup a more significant part of his repertoire – as he claims he will – watch out.
All in all, this should be a Brewers team that’s entertaining and competitive, though not awe-inspiring, and with Craig Counsell at the helm and a lot of match-up opportunities, I think it’ll be an exciting season that ends with the Brewers in the hunt for a playoff spot. Give them 84 wins, perhaps enough for a wild card.
One final note: 2021 will be the first Brewers season without Ryan Braun in the lineup since 2006. I could not be happier about his absence.