Milwaukee Brewers Season Preview

The following will appear Full Spectrum Baseball in the near future.

Any optimism the NL Central champion Brewers had going into the winter meetings was attenuated with news of MVP Ryan Braun’s potential fifty game suspension.  Now that this threat is over, the Crew goes into spring training with a buoyed sense of hope despite losing Prince Fielder to the Tigers, and the hope is justified.  After all, the Brewers set a franchise record with 96 wins in 2011, advanced to the NLCS, and were within two games of making the World Series for the first time since 1982.  Furthermore, all five starters, as well as the Brewers’ set-up man Francisco Rodriquez and closer John Axford – whose one-two punch baffled opponents down the stretch last season – are returning this year, making this the first spring training in memory with no key openings on the pitching staff. 

Yovani Gallardo and Zack Greinke return as the likely number one and two starters, and Randy Wolf and Chris Narveson should handle the back end of the rotation.  The big question mark that isn’t getting a lot of attention is Shaun Marcum, whose stellar season came to a crashing halt last September and into the playoffs.  Both his velocity and command were off, which usually spells arm trouble, but aside from recent shoulder discomfort, there’s been no word of a more significant injury coming from either the Brewers or the press, so perhaps all is well.  But it does beg the question: why did the Brewers opt not to extend Marcum’s contract despite his wishes to do so?  Marco Estrada, who did a competent job as a fill-in starter in 2011, could join the rotation if someone goes down, as could Mike Fiers, who had a tremendous second half in Triple-A last season.

Brewer relievers didn’t give up a lead after the 7^th inning from July 4^th on last season, and with Rodriguez and Axford set to return, the only question marks on the Brewers’ staff are the middle relievers.  After LaTroy Hawkins and Akashi Saito signed elsewhere in the offseason, the Crew picked up Jose Veras from Pittsburgh.  Right-handers Frankie De La Cruz and Kameron Loe are sure to be in the mix as well, and unlike last season, the Brewers hope to carry a consistent lefty in the pen, with Manny Parra and Zack Braddock looking to make the cut.

Ultimately, the success of the Brewers’ 2012 season will likely hinge on the corners, where newly signed third baseman Aramis Ramirez will join first baseman Mat Gamel.  It’ll be interesting to see how Ramirez, who’s coming off an effective season for a subpar Cubs team, hits at Miller Park behind the league’s MVP.  Gamel, who’s only played sporadically in the majors, will finally get his due after another great season in the minors.  Utility infielders Travis Ishikawa, who was acquired in the off-season, and Taylor Green, who filled in nicely late last year as a utility man, will likely complete the infield roster, and both are getting experience at first base should Gamel become injured or underperform.  Right fielder Corey Hart could see some playing time at first as well.  Ishikawa and Green may be key, as second baseman Rickie Weeks is prone to injury, and newly acquired shortstop Alex Gonzalez’s will need to sit out from time to time.  Gonzalez is hardly an improvement at the plate over last year’s Yuniesky Betancourt, but he is a defensive upgrade, something the Brewers focused on this winter after the four regular infielders last season committed on average an error every two games.

Like the pitching staff, the entire outfield returns, including Braun in left, Corey Hart in right, and the centerfield platoon of Nyjer Morgan and Garlos Gomez.  Norichika Aoki, acquired from Japan primarily to fill in for Braun if suspended, will now likely start the season in right since Hart just had successful arthroscopic knee surgery.  Also in the mix is Logan Schafer, a September call-up last season who had an impressive 2011 in Triple A.

Jonathan Lucroy returns as catcher with backup George Kottaras.  Lucroy struggled offensively in the last half of 2011, but his command behind the plate improved, particular his ability to block balls.  However, he only threw out only 21 percent of would-be base stealers, a statistic he’s sure to focus on in 2012.

One big concern for the Crew is its propensity to strike out.  Gomez struck out a whopping 26% of his plate appearances, and Hart wasn’t much better, striking out 21% of the time.  Not a great stat for a leadoff hitter.  Rickie Weeks struck out more than Prince Fielder, despite having 130 fewer at-bats, and Matt Gamel hasn’t shown great plate discipline thus far in the majors or minors. 

My predictions for the Brewers 2012 season:

Team MVP: Aramis Ramirez

Team Ace: Yovanni Gallardo

Team's 2012 record: 91-71

Team's 2012 finish in division: first

Team's 2012 finish in post-season: NLDS

Though history can’t justify it, I expect big numbers from Ramirez at Miller Park (where he has a lifetime average of just .216).  The Brewers staff didn’t have an ace last year, but if I had to pick one for 2012, I’d choose Gallardo.  As for the team’s finish, in the NL Central anything is possible but I predict another division title, though just barely, and a loss to the Marlins in the NLDS.

Brewers’ Off Season Moves Both Perplexing and Promising

Brewer fans were assured this off season that Doug Melvin and company weren’t going to be satisfied with a one and done playoff run.  Regardless of how 2012 pans out for the Crew – and it’s not looking particularly rosy in light of the very real chance of losing Braun for the first fifty games – the team has been engineered to make a run at a consecutive NL Central title.

This isn’t to say there weren’t some questionable moves this off season.   The highlight of the 2011 Brewers team was its pitching, and while all five starters are returning in the spring, the bullpen took a significant hit, though not as big as initially expected. 

Most surprising was Alex Rodriquez’s decision to accept arbitration, who was unable to find a team willing to offer him a closer role out of the pen.  Although the Brewers weren’t exactly hoping to have him return as a very expensive set-up man, perhaps it’s for the best in light of the two pitchers Melvin let get away.  The aging LaTroy Hawkins and Takashi Saito, both of whom came off injuries in 2011 to make major contributions to the Brewers’ bullpen, were lost to free agency.  Perhaps Melvin decided to quit while he was ahead, the way in hindsight he perhaps should have done with Trevor Hoffman after his stellar 2009 season, but it’s difficult to understand in light of how inexpensively these players were snatched in the open market.  Hawkins signed a one-year contract worth $3 million with the Angels, and Saito signed a one-year deal with the Diamondbacks worth $1.75 million.  Why Melvin thought it wasn’t worth pursuing these players for these prices is perplexing.

Another surprise was Melvin’s unwillingness to sign a two-year deal with Jerry Hairston, whose contributions at second base and centerfield down the stretch and into the playoffs were impressive.  The two-year $6 million deal Hairston signed with the Dodgers might have fit in well for the Brewers, who have injury-prone centerfielders in Gomez and Morgan (not to mention terrible strikeout ratios) and second baseman  Weeks.  The Crew also lost Mark Kotsay (again, for a meager $1.25 million) to the Padres, so utility infielders and outfielders are currently in short supply, and the prospect of losing Braun makes these needs more pressing than usual.

On the other hand, the Brewers upgraded the left side of the infield, which was atrocious both on defense and offense last season.  At shortstop, the Brewers upgraded from Betancourt to Alex Gonzalez – a defensive upgrade only, as Gonzalez is as awful at the plate as his predecessor – and at third the Brewers let go of McGehee and signed Aramis Ramirez to a three-year deal.  It’ll be interesting to see what kind of numbers Ramirez can put up at Miller Park, as his 2011 stats for a woeful Cubs team were exceptional.   And Ramirez might also serve to fill another hole – that left by Prince Fielder in the cleanup spot.

As insurance against Braun’s possible suspension, and as a left-handed outfielder off the bench, the Brewers are currently looking at Norichika Aoki from Japan, and have until January 17^th to agree to terms.  Several other players have been invited to spring training, but the only real question marks at this point are the bullpen and utility infielders and outfielders.  Barring injuries, the Crew’s opening day roster is fairly well set. 

Ultimately, if the Brewers have difficultly out of the pen in the 6^th and 7^th innings, or if an outfield or infield injury comes to pass, fans might cry out to Melvin about the inexpensive players he let get away.  But one can’t argue that the team isn’t in position to be competitive, which is a significant change from years’ past.

For Wisconsin Sports Fans, 2011 was the Best Year Ever

The ’57 Braves must have been something else.

The Packers Championships in the 60s?  Wish I had been there.

The ’71 Bucks.  The ’77 Warriors.  The ’82 Brewers.  Three UW Rose Bowl victories.  Terrific times.

But for Wisconsin sports fans, 2011 was the greatest year on record, and I’m not quite sure young Wisconsinites get it.  They can’t recall a time when the Packers weren’t a contender (assuming they block out 2008).  To them, the Badgers football team has always been bowl-bound.  And sure, the Brewers had some tough years, but two playoff appearances in four seasons is nothing to scoff at.

They don’t know what we know.  We’ve suffered through bad seasons.  Really bad.  Horrendously bad.  Like 4-12 Packer teams, a Brewers franchise that avoided the playoffs for two and a half decades, and...well, you want to hear about bad?  Get this – the 2011 Badgers football team won as many games as in my entire tenure at UW-Madison.  (And it took me five football seasons to graduate!)

I’m not even joking about that last one.  UW won ten games in five seasons.  It was the Don Morton debacle.

So when looking back on 2011, it’s hard to convey to young folks just how amazing this year has been.

Consider the following:

The Packers lost a total of one game in 2011, won a Super Bowl and set a record for regular season wins.

The Brewers won 101 games in 2011, including a playoff run, and set a record for regular season wins.

Both Marquette and Wisconsin made the Sweet Sixteen in the men’s NCAA tournament.

And sure, UW football started 2011 with a loss in the Rose Bowl, but it ended the year with a chance to change the outcome.

Years like 2011 just don’t happen.  Maybe in cities where drinking beer is just a pastime, not a mission, but not in puny Milwaukee and Green Bay. 

So soak it up, young sports lovers.  2011 might go down as the pinnacle of Wisconsin sports years.  A year you’ll tell your grandkids about.  A year that will one day bring a smile to you as you suffer through season after season of botched fielding, inept tackling and sloppy dribbling.

Then again, you might instead recall 2012, a year that shows just as much promise today as its little sister did last New Year’s Eve.

Soak it up, indeed.

Writing for Baseball Digest

My first two writings Baseball Digest are now on-line, in what I hope to be the beginning of long-term relationship with the magazine. The first entry is a wrap-up of the Milwaukee Brewers' 2011 season (a little behind the curve), and the second is about the Brewers' off-season needs. The idea here is to get local writers to cover each of the thirty teams on a regular basis, and with any luck, we'll have regular entries throughout 2012. Stay tuned...

Brewers/Cable Essay broadcasted on 89.7 WUWM Milwaukee

Press play to listen to my essay broadcasted on 89.7 WUWM's Lake Effect program on Sept 19, 2011.