The 2021 Brewers

It’s that time of the year again!  Opening day of Major League Baseball is upon us.  I couldn’t be happier that a full season is – if not guaranteed – at least a possibility.  Rewind a year ago and things were looking mighty bleak.  This year, I fully expect to attend a few games up in Milwaukee once I receive my second vaccination and give it a few weeks to do its magic.  Can’t wait.

A week or two before the 2020 baseball season was called, I predicted 74 wins for the Milwaukee Brewers, good enough for fourth place in the NL Central.  They ended the abridged season at 29-31, the equivalent of a 78-win season, and they did indeed finish in fourth place, earning a playoff spot due to the expanded format and losing to the Dodgers in the first round.  Making the playoffs – even with a sub .500 record – was a minor miracle given the dreadful team batting average of .223.  Even Christian Yelich couldn’t put wood on the ball, batting .205.  I gotta believe that this year’s team, while not expected to be an offensive juggernaut, will perform better this season.  If they can, the Brewers have a chance to contend for the NL Central division title.

General manager David Stearns only made a few moves this off-season, most notably the signing of second-baseman Kolten Wong, which moves the poor-fielding Keston Hiura to first base.  This is a huge step up for the Crew, both offensively and defensively, though Brewers fans will likely cringe each time a potential double-play ground ball is hit toward Keston.  Brace yourselves for a few errant throws into the outfield.

The other pickup is outfielder Jackie Bradley, a signing that was likely influenced by the question mark surrounding Lorenzo Cain’s return to center field after a year off.  Bradley is a career .239 hitter, so I wasn’t exactly wowed by the signing, but the former Red Sox player is terrific defensively and helps provide insurance and flexibility.  He also bats lefty (as does Kolten Wong), allowing manager Craig Counsell some latitude with late-inning matchups. 

Stearns tried to sign Justin Turner at the hot corner, and this would have been quite a thrill, but for now Travis Shaw returns after a year in Toronto.  His batting average went up a bit last year, so perhaps he’ll return to 2017-2018 form, when he provided significant pop from the left side before struggling mightily in 2019, when his average plummeted to .157 over 230 at-bats.  Overall, this looks to be the weakest position in the Brewer lineup.

Otherwise, Milwaukee’s lineup is adequate. Orlando Arcia and Luis Urias will likely share shortstop duties, Manny Pina and Omar Narvaez will man behind the plate, and Yelich, Cain and Avisail Garcia will join Bradley in the outfield.  If a few Brewers manage to have career seasons, it could be a decent lineup, but outside of Yelich, it’s certainly not an intimidating offense.

The pitching also has some concerns, but again, if a few of the starters can have career years and if the staff can stay healthy, they could be effective, if not dominate.  Last year the team ERA stood at 4.16, good for sixth in the national league (but a full run behind the Dodgers).  Incidentally, the seven best NL ERAs all made the playoffs, while five of the six worst run-producing teams made the playoffs.  Pitching matters!  Luckily for the Crew, all of last year’s starters – led by Brandon Woodruff and Corbin Burnes – are returning, though for now Freddy Peralta and Josh Lindblom have swapped starter/reliever roles, and last year’s core of effective relievers return as well. 

One pitching question mark is last year’s NL rookie-of-the-year, reliever Devin Williams, who posted a phenomenal 0.33 ERA as a setup up man for closer Josh Hader, and who’s returning after sitting out the playoffs last October due to a shoulder injury.  We shall see if he can stay healthy for a full season and achieve some degree of success.  Hader’s dominance of 2017-2018 has taken a few modest hits, but he’s still a hell of a good closer, and if he manages to make his changeup a more significant part of his repertoire – as he claims he will – watch out.

All in all, this should be a Brewers team that’s entertaining and competitive, though not awe-inspiring, and with Craig Counsell at the helm and a lot of match-up opportunities, I think it’ll be an exciting season that ends with the Brewers in the hunt for a playoff spot.  Give them 84 wins, perhaps enough for a wild card.

One final note: 2021 will be the first Brewers season without Ryan Braun in the lineup since 2006.  I could not be happier about his absence.

Baseball Begins

Just prior to the beginning of the pandemic-shortened MLB season, I happened to start watching the baseball-themed comedy series Brockmire, and was taken with this quote from the third episode:

“So let’s not make baseball out to be any more important than it really is.  It’s just a diversion that keeps us from pondering our own personal hells.”

I love this, and while I’d never admit that I when I watch a ballgame I’m avoiding my own personal demons, I must confess that I’ve missed the diversion of baseball.  I’ve missed having that little no-think something to look forward to at the end of the day, or – lately - in the middle of a frightfully unscheduled weekend.  A little light that says, “Hey, even if you’ve got nothing else going on, baseball starts at 1:20,” as it did yesterday. 

I grabbed a Pabst from the refrigerator (because it’s $7.99 for a 12-pack and it’s good on a hot summer’s day, that’s why), lay down on the couch, petted my pooch, and listened to Bob Uecker call the game for his fiftieth-straight season.  Perfect. The diversion and it’s accompanying mid-day nap were lovely pastimes indeed right until Peralta gave up four runs in fourth and basically ensured that the Cubs would take two of three from the Brewers to start the season.  At that moment it was baseball frustration as usual.  I turned the TV off and went back to work.

Ah, but there’s another game tonight, another diversion, another glimmer of hope.  And that’s one of the beauties of baseball.

And while I don’t exactly hold out a lot of hope for the Brewers during this season like no other, or for the baseball season in general in light of the horrific number of COVID-19 cases reported each day, I can imagine the following scenario:  after a lifetime of making a silent prayer (okay, sometimes not so silent) to let my Brewers win a World Series title (just one – I’m not being greedy), I can imagine the All-Powerful Creator up in the sky saying, “You want a World Series Title; I’ll give you one,” and THIS will be the year I’m granted my request.  This asterisk-marred joke of a season.  THIS will be the year the Milwaukee Brewers win a championship.  Craig Counsell and his crew will come home to Milwaukee for a parade down Wisconsin Avenue on a chilly November afternoon, and fans will come out in droves to celebrate the stunning achievement of the city’s first title since the erstwhile Braves in 1957, and I will be one of those delusional fans. But I and all of my cheesehead brethren will know…we’ll know that none of it counts.  Nothing counts in what is basically a 60-game exhibition.  And God will say, “Hey, what do you want?  I gave you a World Series.”

Because never once in all my years of praying did I specify, “Please God, let the Brewers win a World Series in my lifetime, but only if it’s a legitimate 162-game regular season.”

Dummy me: I forgot to include the proviso.

The 2020 Brewers

It’s hard for Brewers fans not to be a wee bit excited for baseball this year beyond the usual reasons (springtime, listening to Bob Uecker, watching a boatload of TV), not necessarily because the Crew is expected to win the NL Central this year – or even compete for it – but because there are so many new faces and moving parts, not to mention that we just learned about all-star Christian Yelich’s extension.  I look forward to learning more about the latest Brewers, but I must admit that I’m having trouble keeping track of all the new guys.  You’ve got Josh Lindblom, Logan Morrison, Eric Lauer, Luis Urias, Justin Smoak, Mark Mathias, Brett Anderson, Avisail Garcia, Omar Narvaez, and don’t even get me started on the new relievers.  It’s all a bit overwhelming, but it’s also exciting to imagine how it’s all going to play out.

Less exciting is to think realistically about how the Crew is going to perform this year, not only because of the talent on the field, but because of a new rule change that eliminates a late-season strategy the benefited them in a huge way over the past two seasons.  The Brewers are coming off two playoff appearances in a row for the first time in franchise history (unless you count 1981’s strike-shortened first round playoff, which I don’t), but look behind the numbers and the off-season pickups – particularly in the pitching department – and there’s cause for concern going into the 2020 season.

To put it bluntly, September call-ups saved the Brewers during the last two years, as beleaguered pens were allowed to take a breather during the home stretch.  On August 27 two years ago the Crew found themselves 13 games over .500 but 6 games back in the NL Central and clinging onto the second wild card spot.  They then went 23-7 the rest of the way, with a 20-7 September (including one game in October), winning the division in a one-game playoff with the Cubs.  Pretty remarkable, but then they did it again in 2019!  Another 20-7 September!  At the end of August last year the Brewers were in third place, only three games above .500 and 6.5 games back and 4 games behind the second wild card.  Twenty-seven games later they made the playoffs, losing to the eventual World Series champions.

These were very exciting finishes for Brewer fans, and Craig Counsell’s skill at maneuvering personnel in these successive Septembers probably should have won him at least one NL Manager of the Year, but 2020 will allow no such opportunity.  Major League Baseball has initiated a new rule that limits the active roster to 28 during September and 26 during the rest of the season, up from 25.  This rule change could be huge for a team like the Brewers who doesn’t have a pitching ace and who has to rely on short stints of 4-6 innings throughout the season, taxing the bullpen.  There will be little relief in sight when only two additional pitchers can be added come September.

For the record, I agree with the rule change; it makes no sense for teams to field a very different pitching staff in September than the team that got them through the first five months of the season.  But the new rule is going to affect the Brewers in a big way, akin to how the NFL’s kickoff rule change in 2011 effectively penalized the Bears the most since they had the most talented kick returner in Devin Hester.

So what does this mean?  To me, it means that the Brewers are going to have to have a more consistent pitching staff, better able to manage a 162 game season without the cavalry coming in and saving the day.  But in a flurry of off-season activity largely aimed at plugging in the holes at third, first and catcher created by outgoing Mike Moustakas, Eric Thames and Yasmani Grandal, respectively, the Crew didn’t make the big splash expected in starting pitching.  They instead dealt around the margins, attempting to find value in arms that won’t break the bank and that won’t demand a long-term contract.  This has worked successfully for General Manager David Stearns at times with pickups such as Jhoulys Chacin, Wade Miley, Drew Pomeranz and Gio Gonzalez.  But the Crew’s pitching strategy has also backfired at times, such as last year when the Willy Peralta and Corbin Burnes experiment didn’t go according to plan.  You can’t win them all. 

So, will this year’s experiment work?  Will newcomers Lindblum, Anderson and Lauer joining an effective but still fairly inexperience duo of Brandon Woodruff and Adrian Houser be enough?  And will they be able to eat as many innings as Zach Davies and Chase Anderson, who ranked first and second in innings pitched for the Brewers in 2019?  Will Corey Knebel be effective when he returns from last season’s surgery?  And will Josh Hader and Corbin Burnes be able to limit the number of home runs this season (granted, this was a problem throughout Major League Baseball last year)?

I asked similar pitching questions a year ago, and the feeling going into 2020 feels very much like the feeling going into 2019, except that this year we don’t have the nearly-guaranteed offensive production of Moustakas and Grandal.  Instead, we’re praying that Urias, Navarez, Garcia, Smoak and Eric Sogard take up the slack. And them of course we have the September rule change.

A year ago I predicted 88 wins compared to their eventual 89 wins.  I’m excited for this season – I truly am – but I’m not optimistic.  I think the pitching is finally going to get the better of the Brewers with no September call-ups to save the day.

75 wins.  Fourth place.

The 2019 Brewers

It’s hard for Brewers fans not to be optimistic for the upcoming season, which is exactly what makes a lot of Brewers fans worried.  It’s so much easier to go into a season with low expectations, but after defying the odds in 2018 by winning the NL Central and making it to Game 7 of the NLCS, owner Mark Attanasio and GM David Stearns are all in, spending an unprecedented amount (for the franchise, that is) to make a run for the World Series.  There’s reason to think the Crew can make it happen again.  There are also a few reasons why they may not.

Offensively, the Brewers have the potential to score a helluva lot of runs, especially if shortstop Orlando Arcia can play up to 2017 levels.  Looking at the likely regular starting lineup, there’s not an easy out in the bunch, and each player can do some damage with the longball, something fans should see plenty of with the addition of catcher Yasmani Grandal and the resigning of (this year) second baseman Mike Moustakas.  The Brewers also have a lot of nice options to play matchups against righties and lefties with the aforementioned additions plus outfielder Ben Gamel.  Yes, this roster is going to strike out a lot, and fans will slap their heads from time to time when guys like Shaw and Moustakas refuse to bunt against the shift (Don’t think this matters?  Review Game 2 of the NLCS), but overall, expect to see an entertaining offense in 2019.

So why the worry?  Pitching.  It’s notable that most Brewers fans had the same worries last year, yet the Crew ended up with the fourth best ERA in the league, largely due to manager Counsell’s effective “out-getter” strategy, eschewing the traditional starter-closer roles in favor of getting outs where it mattered most by any means necessary.  Generally, I liked this strategy, as I hate what the closer role has become and the Brewers can’t afford marque starters, but sometimes the strategy fell victim to overmanaging (taking Wide Miley out in the sixth inning of game 2 of the NLCS after only 74 very effective pitches).

But this year the Crew is going with a group of very young and unproven starters, including three who played important reliever roles last year: Brandon Woodruff, Corbin Burnes and 22 year-old Freddy Peralta.  The success of the Brewers depends largely on whether this trio can pitch reasonably effectively for an entire season.  Starter Jimmy Nelson is still trying to regain his strength after a 2017 shoulder injury that likely led to the Crew missing the playoffs that year.  Whether he will ever pitch regularly in the MLB again is big question mark.  To make matters more concerning, the Brewers recently discovered that reliever extraordinaire Corey Knebel has a UCL injury, and earlier in spring training it was deemed that Jeremy Jeffress would not start the season with the team, as he needs to build up arm strength after a shoulder injury. 

So, a lot of question marks for sure, but it would be wise not to bet against Stearns and Counsell, who’ve managed to find a way to put a winning team on the field even when it seemed unlikely.  So what’s my prediction?  I would be surprised if the Brewers managed to win the NL Central again – it’s going to be a very good division this year, with the Cubs and Cardinals likely contending for the division crown – but I would be just as surprised if the Crew wasn’t at least in the September hunt for a wild card berth.  Their 88-74 finish may get them into their first back-to-back playoff appearance since 1982.

Post-Playoff Hangover

It would be disingenuous to say that the Brewers loss in Game 7 of the NLCS on Saturday night wasn’t disappointing, but at the same time, it can hardly be categorized as heartbreaking.  As my friend said to me in the middle of September when the Brewers were embarking on a great run toward the playoffs, “We’re playing with house money.”  No one expected the Brewers to play as well as they did in September, and few thought that a division title and advancing to the World Series was within the Crew’s grasp.  It’s hard to be too upset when the team so overwhelmingly defied expectations.

And the playoffs led to such great times, too.  I got to see a game with my old buddy from way back in grade school, I flew to California to attend one game with my daughter, drove up to Milwaukee to attend another with my son, and my wife and I gathered at my friend’s house for an evening of drinks, snacks and baseball on glorious high def.  I got to hang out with my sister’s family several times, and I even got to see Christian Yelich hit for his second cycle in September with a couple of buddies.  Not too shabby.  

But all of this has led to a bit of a post-playoff hangover for me.  Baseball had become such a glorious time-suck, that now suddenly, after weeks of having every bit of free time filled, the onus is on me to fill my time productively.  No more evenings watching the game on TV, mornings reading about the same game on-line, and afternoons texting like-minded friends about strategy and predictions.  No more restless nights with visions of the first World Series appearance in thirty-six years.  No more games to look forward to.  Now, instead of relying on others to entertain me, I have to entertain myself, which means tackling a basement project that I started last spring just as the 2018 baseball season was budding.  It’s back to reality, and it’s not necessarily a reality I want to face.

Still, I have another baseball season to look forward to, when I’ll once again set aside my personal aspirations in favor of the aspirations of others, and go along for the ride.  As disheartening as the end of this year’s playoffs was for the Brewers – being literally one good bullpen outing and one hit away from actually sweeping the Dodgers in four games – less disheartening is the core of players that are sure to return next year, and how that core might evolve.  Brewers owner Mark Attanasio commented on Saturday that the end of 2018 feels different than in 2011, when the Brewers lost the NLCS in six games.  That year felt like the end of something, where this year feels like it’s just the beginning.

My unmotivated self can’t wait.